1. Cease fire now, unilateral and
enforced if necessary - act like a superpower, not a combatant
Much of the recent
discussion about a ceasefire in the Russo-Ukraine war has revolved around how
to get Russia to accept a ceasefire, rather than saying "Yes, but.."
in a quagmire of conditions that amounts to the "Nyet" Putin would
prefer to avoid giving U.S. President Donald Trump. This assumes Putin's
consent is necessary for a ceasefire. It is not. Ukraine has already agreed to
a ceasefire; if Russia refuses, the U.S. should, for once, act not like a
regional or even world power, but, as we often say but seldom consider the
implications of, the world's sole remaining superpower. A unilateral ceasefire
could be as simple as: no Russian forces will be attacked unless they attack
Ukrainian forces or civilians; all Russian forces that attack Ukrainian forces
or civilians, directly or indirectly, will be destroyed. As in Serbia, NATO has
the ability to impose and enforce such a ceasefire. If Putin refuses to accept
a bilateral ceasefire, the U.S. and NATO should impose it, after duly warning
Russian forces, to minimize casualties and encourage compliance. Russian forces
stuck in Ukraine should be treated humanely and not harmed as long as they comply
with the ceasefire. Russian forces, such as missiles, bombers, fighters, glide bombs,
drones, air defense and launch sites outside Ukraine will also be left
unmolested as long as they too comply with the ceasefire, but destroyed if they
do not.
2. Lend-lease, provide more and
faster
Although the 0.53%
of GDP the U.S sends in aid to Ukraine is relatively small, it is still a
concern both for U.S. taxpayers as too much, and Ukraine as not enough to
seriously defend itself. As the U.S. did for Britain and Russia in World War
II, much more is needed, but it doesn't have to be charity. Lend-lease, then as
now, allows much more robust support while enforcing burden sharing in the long
run. It may sound harsh, but if the Ukrainians want to be independent, they can
help pay for it. That also preserves the U.S. "super" power status,
above the fray but ready to support freedom, and maintains the core economic
and military strength of FDR's "arsenal of democracy".
3. Ask and provide what's needed -
WW2, Harry Hopkins to Stalin
Lend-lease also
means no more 'beggars can't be choosers' for Ukraine, with the U.S. throttling
the supply of weapons that Ukraine needs to defend itself. When it was Russia
under attack during World War II, FDR sent Harry Hopkins to Moscow with one question
for Stalin: "what do you need?" Stalin wasn't bashful, and the
75,000 tons of aluminum for aircraft, and planes, parts and plans allowed the
Soviet Union to hold its own and eventually prevail against the Nazi threat. Today, Russia is the aggressor, and instead of
dribbling out aid like crumbs from the master's table, the U.S. needs to again
ask Harry Hopkin's question, this time of Ukraine, "What do you
need?"
4. Defense production act
Remember during
the pandemic when we rediscovered the Defense Production Act to nudge/compel/goad
automakers to make ventilators, of all things? Now is the time to put that
legislation to its intended purpose and ramp up production of the defense
equipment Ukraine needs, and to avoid
depleting essential stockpiles, especially of those weapons the current
conflict shows are most critical. Requiring some manufacturers to retool,
others to share plans and technologies, and imposing cooperation where competition
normally reigns will increase defense capability, help Ukraine and signal to
adversaries our willingness to do what is necessary to defend freedom. And
create jobs, lots of jobs, in the one sector that a modern, prosperous
democracy, as recent events have once again shown, unfortunately cannot afford
to neglect.
5. Reduce tariffs to replace
civilian production shifted to defense, keep China on sidelines
Trusted allies
should be included where practicable in defense production, for example of
ships and armaments in South Korea, Japan and Europe. Also, reduced tariffs on other
imports, like cars, can both help ease the pain for consumers, and encourage trading
partners, especially China, to stay on the sidelines or even reduce their
support for Russia, as new import opportunities to the U.S. emerge. Let the
Chinese make our electric cars for few years, while we make sure Ukraine,
Europe and U.S. are safe and free to keep using them, as well as enjoying the
many other benefits of a free society.
6. Surge defense capabilities to
Ukraine, missile defense, counter air defense, planes
Air power is
essential to survival and victory in modern warfare. Ukraine survived the initial
Russian onslaught by dispersing its air force to safety, and then by using at
first shoulder fired SAMs and later more advanced air defense systems like the
Patriot to deny Russia control over Ukrainian airspace. However, the
handful of planes provided by European
allies or the U.S. is nowhere near sufficient to allow Ukraine to control its
own airspace. A recent article bemoaning the loss of one of Ukraine's F-16's shows the total lack of understanding of the
scale of what is required to defend Ukraine. The Ukrainians need not a handful,
or a few dozen, or even couple hundred planes, but at least several hundred, and provision to replace and repair
losses, to establish air superiority over Ukraine, as well as more and better
air defense, and anti-air defense weapons to reduce as much as possible the
risk to their pilots.
7. Ukraine in NATO, coordinate
defense - all excuses for neutral Ukraine canceled by war of aggression
Russia's excuses
about being threatened by NATO and keeping Ukraine as a buffer zone evaporated the moment Russian troops
illegally invaded Ukraine, as Finland and Sweden have already realized in their
joining NATO. If keeping Ukraine out of
NATO was supposed to prevent war, how come it didn't work after the last 30
years of fits and starts on Ukrainian membership ended in war? Ukraine may not
regain its lost territory as fast as it would like to, but, in conjunction with
a cease fire, NATO membership, like that of West Germany after World War II,
combined with sound economic and social policies, could pave way the way for
eventual reunification as the benefits of western democracy, freedom and
defensive vigilance outstrip tyranny over time.
8. Establish air superiority over
Ukraine
Think back to World
War II or Desert Storm - the U.S. would never, ever attempt to counter even a regional adversary without
overwhelming air superiority. Golden rule time. Take off the shackles and
provide Ukraine the real air power it needs to defend itself, or, in
conjunction with NATO, establish a firm, non-belligerent - but not provocatively
weak either - air superiority and defensive shield over Ukraine. Time to
implement the pro-Ukraine protesters' chant from the beginning of the war,
"Clear the skies".
9. Think harder and creatively
about incentives for Russia
In addition to not
seeming desperate to make a deal, President Trump's Art of the Deal also tells us that the leverage required to make a good
deal "often requires imagination, and salesmanship". None of the calls for reparations or more
severe treatment of Russia are likely to end the war. Inducements, or the
off-ramp many seek but none have found for Putin to end the war and save face, have
not so far worked either. That may be from a lack of imagination. Especially when we consider the potential
terrible cost of not making a deal,
imaginative ideas that might seem outlandish at first blush might be just
what's needed:
·
Free trade deal with Russia, perhaps expand
USMCA, now that global warming is making up polar neighbors.
·
Joint space program - continue and expand
cooperation on the International Space Station and its successor. Joint
missions to the moon and Mars. Figure out a competitive structure for Roscosmos
to work with U.S. and other allied space agencies and firms. Give them half of
Mars, like Spain and Portugal's deal to split the world. Future generations can
sort that out - they'll blame us, but at least they'll be around to do it.
·
Revive Partnership for Peace - idealistic and,
in hindsight, often thought unrealistic, the post Cold War attempt to bring Russia
into a mutual defense and peacekeeping agreement deserves another look.
·
Bering Strait bridge - crazy right? But not
impossible, especially for such a world-renowned bridge builder as the
mastermind of the Kerch Bridge to Crimea. In conjunction with free trade and
the massive construction required not only for a bridge/tunnel/rail across the
Bering Strait, but the infrastructure required on both sides, it would be a
boon to both economies, as well as provide an alternative shipping method for
trade between North America and Asia.
In short, use a
lot more imagination to find a win, and make Russia an ally, or at least not an
enemy.
10. Apply Cold War lessons, truce,
strong deterrence and strong economy
Failing a grand peace deal, fall back on
tried-and-true Plan B: The post WW II Cold
War model for Germany, and post Cold War Poland and Eastern Europe: economic
prosperity, social justice, democracy, the rule of law and strong defense will
prevail in the long run, and often peacefully, over tyranny, corruption and
brutal oppression.
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Welcome to the discussion.